MODEL VERDICT
ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $16.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $17.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $13.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $14.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $13.83 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $13.73 | -17.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $0.24 | -98.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $10.06 | -39.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $2.13 | -87.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $7.89 | -52.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $15.99 | -3.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $14.47 | -12.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $0.22 | -98.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $10.07 | -39.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.19 | -38.7% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 1791× | 1961× | 2131× (Current) | 2301× | 2471× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $15 | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 |
| Conservative (7%) | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $15 | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 445.80 | 278.41 | 7.17 | 1219.23 | 574.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 50.85 | 40.52 | 5.22 | 117.15 | 53.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.51 | 8.39 | 3.14 | 30.71 | 10.90 |
| P/FCF | 74.28 | 23.59 | 8.79 | 245.40 | 98.94 |
| P/FFO | 8.79 | 8.52 | 3.57 | 16.10 | 4.81 |
| P/TBV | 1.14 | 1.22 | 0.86 | 1.31 | 0.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.08 | 1.16 | 0.86 | 1.21 | 0.15 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.77 | 0.79 | 0.57 | 0.95 | 0.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates PUMP's fair value at $10.19 vs the current price of $16.62, implying -38.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.82 (P10) to $19.83 (P90), with a median of $13.44.
PUMP's current P/E of 2130.8x compares to the industry median of 30.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +6959.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 445.8x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
30 analysts cover PUMP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.75 (range: $13.00 — $17.00), implying -11.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PUMP trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (445.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PUMP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.