MODEL VERDICT
PVH Corp. (PVH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $91.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $93.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $94.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $87.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $90.74 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $157.67 | +72.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $141.91 | +54.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $219.54 | +139.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $216.24 | +136.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $149.40 | +63.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $260.87 | +184.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $136.34 | +48.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $152.12 | +66.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $101.43 | +10.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $220.17 | +140.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $214.55 | +134.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $160.37 | +75.0% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $56 | $78 | $100 | $122 | $145 |
| Conservative (9%) | $57 | $80 | $103 | $126 | $149 |
| Base Case (13.6%) | $60 | $84 | $108 | $132 | $156 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $62 | $87 | $112 | $137 | $162 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.52 | 10.68 | 8.06 | 23.30 | 6.09 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.33 | 10.89 | 9.60 | 21.27 | 4.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.18 | 8.74 | 7.90 | 17.68 | 3.72 |
| P/FCF | 11.87 | 11.01 | 9.55 | 15.19 | 2.30 |
| P/FFO | 7.87 | 7.32 | 6.06 | 10.58 | 1.75 |
| P/AFFO | 13.10 | 10.37 | 7.69 | 22.06 | 6.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.29 | 1.35 | 0.93 | 1.47 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.76 | 0.79 | 0.52 | 0.94 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PVH's fair value at $160.37 vs the current price of $91.64, implying +75.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $160.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $143.77 (P10) to $189.08 (P90), with a median of $166.16.
PVH's current P/E of 8.7x compares to the industry median of 20.8x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -58.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.5x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
38 analysts cover PVH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $100.00 (range: $82.00 — $148.00), implying +9.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (22), Hold (15), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PVH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (5.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5270.0% to approximately $140. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.