MODEL VERDICT
Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $742.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $624.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $601.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $591.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $585.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $398.42 | -46.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $294.62 | -60.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $244.30 | -67.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $305.88 | -58.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $266.36 | -64.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $299.48 | -59.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $207.66 | -72.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $338.79 | -54.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $344.56 | -53.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $244.30 | -67.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $305.88 | -58.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $323.61 | -56.4% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 91× | 100× | 109× (Current) | 118× | 127× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $661 | $727 | $792 | $858 | $923 |
| Conservative (11%) | $688 | $756 | $824 | $892 | $960 |
| Base Case (17.2%) | $725 | $797 | $869 | $940 | $1012 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $763 | $838 | $914 | $989 | $1065 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.04 | 42.92 | 14.91 | 62.07 | 16.27 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.92 | 29.74 | 11.73 | 38.75 | 9.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.01 | 18.58 | 8.69 | 26.09 | 6.29 |
| P/FCF | 35.71 | 30.06 | 12.23 | 85.19 | 23.40 |
| P/FFO | 20.91 | 18.57 | 8.80 | 34.17 | 8.68 |
| P/TBV | 83.28 | 36.70 | 3.71 | 310.50 | 129.12 |
| P/AFFO | 32.65 | 32.05 | 14.30 | 50.63 | 12.66 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.25 | 3.91 | 1.48 | 7.09 | 2.08 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.39 | 1.28 | 0.50 | 2.26 | 0.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PWR's fair value at $323.61 vs the current price of $742.21, implying -56.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $323.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $272.65 (P10) to $363.67 (P90), with a median of $317.89.
PWR's current P/E of 109.1x compares to the industry median of 35.9x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +203.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 39.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
35 analysts cover PWR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $647.23 (range: $428.00 — $851.00), implying -12.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PWR trades at the 8850th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (39.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PWR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4680.0% to approximately $395. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.