MODEL VERDICT
P10, Inc. (PX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $7.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $7.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $7.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $7.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $7.33 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $5.06 | -33.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $8.69 | +15.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $7.55 | +0.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $5.13 | -32.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $17.41 | +130.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.66 | +28.0% | 100% | 65 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 39× | 43× | 47× (Current) | 51× | 55× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 |
| Conservative (6%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| Base Case (9.9%) | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
| Bull Case (13%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 98.13 | 78.81 | 44.46 | 171.11 | 65.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 52.22 | 51.59 | 27.43 | 78.27 | 24.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.13 | 23.57 | 20.54 | 28.82 | 3.57 |
| P/FCF | 23.77 | 23.62 | 15.71 | 32.14 | 6.92 |
| P/FFO | 36.59 | 35.70 | 22.95 | 51.98 | 12.03 |
| P/AFFO | 38.38 | 37.56 | 23.56 | 54.83 | 12.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.42 | 3.46 | 2.79 | 3.97 | 0.62 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.75 | 5.83 | 4.91 | 10.43 | 2.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates PX's fair value at $9.66 vs the current price of $7.55, implying +28.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.78 (P10) to $12.52 (P90), with a median of $10.09.
PX's current P/E of 47.2x compares to the industry median of 31.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +49.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 98.1x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
8 analysts cover PX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $25.00 (range: $25.00 — $25.00), implying +231.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (10.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 25950.0% to approximately $27. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.