MODEL VERDICT
Qnity Electronics, Inc. (Q)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.09 | $143.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.09 | $144.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.09 | $136.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.09 | $131.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $130.65 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $91.15 | -36.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $141.83 | -1.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $129.12 | -9.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $128.48 | -10.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $134.02 | -6.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $141.81 | -1.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $129.12 | -9.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $88.85 | -38.0% | 100% | 50 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 40× | 43× (Current) | 46× | 49× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $127 | $138 | $148 | $158 | $169 |
| Conservative (7%) | $130 | $141 | $152 | $162 | $173 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $135 | $146 | $157 | $167 | $178 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $139 | $150 | $161 | $173 | $184 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates Q's fair value at $88.85 vs the current price of $143.33, implying -38.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $88.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $106.47 (P10) to $138.40 (P90), with a median of $122.07.
Q's current P/E of 43.3x compares to the industry median of 42.9x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +1.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Fair Value.
3 analysts cover Q with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $125.00 (range: $100.00 — $150.00), implying -12.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 16.0% is 13.6 percentage points above the 7-year average (6.0%), with a Z-score of +2.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$53. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that Q's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.3σ, meaning margins are 2.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6270.0% to approximately $53. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.