MODEL VERDICT
Qualys, Inc. (QLYS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $88.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $84.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $83.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $85.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $76.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $213.88 | +141.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $159.40 | +80.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $162.98 | +84.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $171.05 | +93.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $158.99 | +79.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $173.48 | +96.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $129.88 | +46.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $147.34 | +66.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $126.11 | +42.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $164.13 | +85.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $169.73 | +91.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $193.63 | +118.7% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $76 | $86 | $96 | $106 | $117 |
| Conservative (15%) | $80 | $91 | $101 | $112 | $123 |
| Base Case (22.6%) | $86 | $97 | $108 | $120 | $131 |
| Bull Case (31%) | $91 | $103 | $115 | $127 | $140 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 50.85 | 49.63 | 30.15 | 77.53 | 14.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 45.48 | 44.19 | 26.99 | 61.77 | 13.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 34.64 | 37.91 | 24.56 | 43.83 | 7.16 |
| P/FCF | 28.71 | 30.49 | 22.60 | 33.16 | 3.88 |
| P/FFO | 37.38 | 36.32 | 27.25 | 51.52 | 7.92 |
| P/TBV | 13.39 | 12.92 | 9.51 | 21.03 | 4.13 |
| P/AFFO | 46.97 | 47.24 | 29.12 | 67.79 | 12.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.69 | 12.30 | 8.75 | 20.05 | 3.95 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.43 | 11.23 | 8.62 | 13.71 | 2.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates QLYS's fair value at $193.63 vs the current price of $88.53, implying +118.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $193.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $142.63 (P10) to $244.98 (P90), with a median of $190.09.
QLYS's current P/E of 19.0x compares to the industry median of 35.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -45.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 50.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
48 analysts cover QLYS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $134.30 (range: $85.00 — $162.00), implying +51.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (26), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 29.0% is 5.7 percentage points above the 7-year average (23.2%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$190. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that QLYS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 11420.0% to approximately $190. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.