MODEL VERDICT
RB Global, Inc. (RBA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $104.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $106.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $104.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $103.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $103.30 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $86.47 | -17.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $73.19 | -30.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $50.38 | -52.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $102.00 | -2.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $64.09 | -38.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $80.36 | -23.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $16.59 | -84.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $63.87 | -39.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $60.45 | -42.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $52.73 | -49.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $102.86 | -1.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $87.40 | -16.7% | 100% | 87 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 42× | 46× | 50× (Current) | 54× | 58× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $90 | $98 | $107 | $115 | $124 |
| Conservative (5%) | $92 | $100 | $109 | $118 | $127 |
| Base Case (6.2%) | $93 | $102 | $110 | $119 | $128 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $95 | $104 | $113 | $122 | $131 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.95 | 45.01 | 20.22 | 64.32 | 13.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.86 | 29.13 | 14.52 | 34.50 | 6.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.78 | 16.55 | 11.82 | 24.47 | 4.53 |
| P/FCF | 28.85 | 25.51 | 16.16 | 56.88 | 14.02 |
| P/FFO | 20.42 | 17.62 | 14.83 | 29.82 | 5.76 |
| P/AFFO | 23.69 | 23.24 | 16.00 | 31.57 | 5.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.61 | 5.01 | 2.04 | 7.58 | 2.00 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.11 | 3.90 | 3.06 | 5.57 | 0.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates RBA's fair value at $87.40 vs the current price of $104.88, implying -16.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $87.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $74.85 (P10) to $94.46 (P90), with a median of $84.44.
RBA's current P/E of 50.4x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +108.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 42.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
23 analysts cover RBA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $124.00 (range: $124.00 — $124.00), implying +18.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (6), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RBA trades at the 9000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (42.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RBA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7060.0% to approximately $179. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.