MODEL VERDICT
Rocky Brands, Inc. (RCKY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $42.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $43.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $42.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $43.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 13, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $42.62 | Below threshold | +1.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $57.84 | +35.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $66.55 | +55.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $24.79 | -42.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $78.88 | +84.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $55.80 | +30.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $85.42 | +99.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $45.88 | +7.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $60.25 | +40.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $26.75 | -37.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $78.14 | +82.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $49.65 | +16.1% | 100% | 82 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $37 | $40 | $43 | $47 | $50 |
| Conservative (5%) | $38 | $41 | $45 | $48 | $51 |
| Base Case (-8.3%) | $33 | $36 | $39 | $42 | $45 |
| Bull Case (-11%) | $32 | $35 | $38 | $40 | $43 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.56 | 13.33 | 8.50 | 21.40 | 4.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.43 | 9.91 | 6.59 | 15.79 | 2.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.09 | 7.75 | 5.53 | 12.01 | 1.97 |
| P/FCF | 11.14 | 12.23 | 3.20 | 21.11 | 6.94 |
| P/FFO | 8.60 | 9.25 | 5.31 | 10.43 | 1.74 |
| P/TBV | 4.06 | 2.17 | 1.38 | 14.11 | 4.55 |
| P/AFFO | 14.02 | 12.77 | 6.67 | 27.26 | 6.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.11 | 1.15 | 0.73 | 1.49 | 0.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.58 | 0.57 | 0.28 | 0.81 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates RCKY's fair value at $49.65 vs the current price of $42.76, implying +16.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $49.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $46.32 (P10) to $60.70 (P90), with a median of $53.31.
RCKY's current P/E of 28.1x compares to the industry median of 16.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +72.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
4 analysts cover RCKY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $42.00 (range: $42.00 — $42.00), implying -1.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RCKY trades at the 6250th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RCKY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1560.0% to approximately $36. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.