MODEL VERDICT
RCM Technologies, Inc. (RCMT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $51.21 | +169.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $47.82 | +151.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $47.68 | +151.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $6.59 | -65.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $65.04 | +242.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $4.52 | -76.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $90.43 | +376.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $91.56 | +382.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $68.40 | +260.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $49.02 | +158.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $10.28 | -45.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $41.98 | +121.2% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $14 | $18 | $21 | $25 | $29 |
| Conservative (26%) | $15 | $19 | $23 | $28 | $32 |
| Base Case (40.2%) | $16 | $21 | $26 | $31 | $35 |
| Bull Case (54%) | $18 | $23 | $29 | $34 | $39 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.91 | 11.43 | 6.17 | 14.82 | 3.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.09 | 9.44 | 4.93 | 11.94 | 2.72 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.37 | 9.05 | 4.77 | 11.13 | 2.29 |
| P/FCF | 63.85 | 26.13 | 1.02 | 238.53 | 99.51 |
| P/FFO | 8.96 | 7.91 | 5.88 | 13.83 | 3.10 |
| P/TBV | 19.14 | 8.61 | 2.49 | 84.30 | 29.18 |
| P/AFFO | 10.79 | 10.53 | 6.12 | 16.51 | 4.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.70 | 3.19 | 1.13 | 9.68 | 3.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.43 | 0.41 | 0.17 | 0.95 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates RCMT's fair value at $41.98 vs the current price of $18.98, implying +121.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $41.98 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.04 (P10) to $44.49 (P90), with a median of $38.06.
RCMT's current P/E of 11.3x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -60.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.9x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover RCMT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RCMT trades at the 1820th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RCMT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 960.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.