MODEL VERDICT
Radware Ltd. (RDWR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $26.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $26.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $25.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $24.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $23.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $21.77 | -18.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $12.05 | -54.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $13.50 | -49.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $18.77 | -29.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $9.13 | -65.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $24.49 | -8.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $9.42 | -64.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $39.38 | +47.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $38.86 | +45.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $13.52 | -49.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $18.88 | -29.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.76 | -11.1% | 100% | 81 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 49× | 54× | 59× (Current) | 64× | 69× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $24 | $26 | $28 | $31 | $33 |
| Conservative (11%) | $25 | $27 | $30 | $32 | $35 |
| Base Case (17.6%) | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 | $37 |
| Bull Case (24%) | $27 | $30 | $33 | $36 | $38 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 133.66 | 138.75 | 53.53 | 260.25 | 85.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 118.77 | 95.82 | 72.67 | 210.78 | 62.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 74.64 | 72.52 | 42.82 | 112.78 | 29.45 |
| P/FCF | 26.92 | 26.95 | 14.73 | 38.04 | 7.58 |
| P/FFO | 62.96 | 60.13 | 33.71 | 109.85 | 28.30 |
| P/TBV | 3.85 | 3.52 | 2.99 | 6.22 | 1.09 |
| P/AFFO | 129.00 | 96.26 | 46.01 | 327.30 | 106.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.15 | 2.76 | 2.21 | 5.35 | 1.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.29 | 3.57 | 2.74 | 6.90 | 1.49 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates RDWR's fair value at $23.76 vs the current price of $26.73, implying -11.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.80 (P10) to $30.59 (P90), with a median of $25.58.
RDWR's current P/E of 59.4x compares to the industry median of 30.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +97.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 133.7x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover RDWR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $25.00 (range: $25.00 — $25.00), implying -6.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RDWR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (2.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2270.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.