MODEL VERDICT
REV Group, Inc. (REVG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $63.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $63.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $63.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $63.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $63.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $63.55 | -0.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $43.08 | -32.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $41.12 | -35.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $76.43 | +19.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $60.47 | -5.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $82.13 | +28.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $64.18 | +0.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $45.28 | -29.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $40.32 | -36.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $76.02 | +19.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $63.31 | -0.9% | 100% | 86 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $55 | $61 | $67 | $73 | $79 |
| Conservative (7%) | $56 | $62 | $68 | $74 | $81 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $58 | $64 | $71 | $77 | $83 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $60 | $66 | $73 | $79 | $86 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.70 | 23.60 | 6.75 | 50.48 | 16.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.52 | 17.97 | 4.97 | 72.00 | 24.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.62 | 14.50 | 9.81 | 20.58 | 3.69 |
| P/FCF | 22.07 | 14.28 | 6.85 | 67.48 | 20.95 |
| P/FFO | 22.24 | 16.25 | 6.15 | 57.26 | 16.78 |
| P/TBV | 6.39 | 4.29 | 3.10 | 15.89 | 4.55 |
| P/AFFO | 36.55 | 30.90 | 6.82 | 89.29 | 28.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.81 | 1.76 | 1.18 | 7.36 | 2.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.52 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 1.24 | 0.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates REVG's fair value at $63.31 vs the current price of $63.90, implying -0.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $63.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $53.32 (P10) to $71.81 (P90), with a median of $61.95.
REVG's current P/E of 33.8x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +55.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.7x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover REVG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $55.00 (range: $55.00 — $55.00), implying -13.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (9), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: REVG trades at the 6920th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that REVG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (4.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2590.0% to approximately $47. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.