MODEL VERDICT
REX American Resources Corporation (REX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $49.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $46.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $43.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $43.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $44.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $12.56 | -74.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $41.81 | -16.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $43.63 | -12.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $53.20 | +6.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $56.76 | +13.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $26.17 | -47.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $18.89 | -62.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $43.10 | -13.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $41.73 | -16.5% | 100% | 59 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (21%) | $52 | $56 | $60 | $64 | $68 |
| Conservative (35%) | $58 | $62 | $67 | $71 | $76 |
| Base Case (53.3%) | $66 | $71 | $76 | $81 | $86 |
| Bull Case (72%) | $74 | $79 | $85 | $91 | $96 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.86 | 13.84 | 10.96 | 81.60 | 30.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 91.84 | 19.56 | 5.14 | 406.65 | 150.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.58 | 7.25 | 3.84 | 12.92 | 3.40 |
| P/FCF | 24.16 | 11.80 | 6.63 | 78.85 | 30.71 |
| P/FFO | 11.12 | 9.90 | 7.56 | 17.11 | 3.70 |
| P/TBV | 1.14 | 1.14 | 0.98 | 1.41 | 0.14 |
| P/AFFO | 26.10 | 17.16 | 8.11 | 85.83 | 27.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.14 | 1.14 | 0.98 | 1.41 | 0.14 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.66 | 1.24 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates REX's fair value at $41.73 vs the current price of $49.97, implying -16.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $41.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.78 (P10) to $56.78 (P90), with a median of $38.35.
REX's current P/E of 30.3x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +14.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.9x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
3 analysts cover REX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $60.00 (range: $60.00 — $60.00), implying +20.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that REX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3600.0% to approximately $32. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.