MODEL VERDICT
Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. (REXR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $35.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $35.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $37.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $35.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $33.96 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 10 REIT peers | $28.83 | -18.8% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 7 REIT peers | $11.11 | -68.7% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $46.93 | +32.2% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $60.43 | +70.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $65.17 | +83.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $22.73 | -36.0% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $41.46 | +16.8% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $41.17 | +15.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $37.22 | +4.8% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $44.60 | +25.6% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 35× | 38× | 41× (Current) | 44× | 47× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 | $42 |
| Conservative (7%) | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 | $43 |
| Base Case (11.0%) | $33 | $36 | $39 | $42 | $45 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $35 | $38 | $41 | $43 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 68.80 | 59.39 | 32.22 | 101.39 | 28.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 57.96 | 51.55 | 32.02 | 88.34 | 21.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.24 | 19.32 | 13.16 | 29.48 | 5.06 |
| P/FCF | 62.92 | 57.10 | 43.15 | 88.08 | 16.94 |
| P/FFO | 27.75 | 28.04 | 16.20 | 43.03 | 9.41 |
| P/TBV | 1.54 | 1.43 | 0.99 | 2.30 | 0.48 |
| P/AFFO | 55.19 | 57.07 | 46.10 | 70.31 | 9.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.50 | 1.40 | 0.97 | 2.24 | 0.46 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 15.50 | 14.80 | 8.98 | 25.12 | 5.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates REXR's fair value at $44.60 vs the current price of $35.51, implying +25.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $44.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.17 (P10) to $53.63 (P90), with a median of $47.26.
REXR's current P/E of 41.3x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +56.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 68.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
21 analysts cover REXR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $42.50 (range: $40.00 — $45.00), implying +19.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that REXR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8290.0% to approximately $65. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.