MODEL VERDICT
Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. (REXR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $37.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $37.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $37.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $38.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $40.76 | Pending | -5.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 18 industry peers | $57.05 | +52.3% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 20 industry peers | $1.11 | -97.0% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 23 industry peers | $77.44 | +106.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $32.29 | -13.8% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $37.47 | +0.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 20 industry peers | $34.59 | -7.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 20 industry peers | $35.91 | -4.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $49.09 | +31.0% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $35 | $38 | $40 | $43 | $45 |
| Conservative (13%) | $37 | $39 | $42 | $45 | $48 |
| Base Case (20.6%) | $39 | $42 | $45 | $48 | $51 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $41 | $44 | $48 | $51 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 72.63 | 71.88 | 32.22 | 101.39 | 26.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 60.95 | 58.91 | 32.02 | 88.34 | 19.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.94 | 19.32 | 13.16 | 29.48 | 5.30 |
| P/FCF | 64.96 | 57.42 | 48.51 | 88.08 | 14.90 |
| P/FFO | 28.37 | 28.04 | 16.20 | 43.03 | 8.70 |
| P/TBV | 1.59 | 1.43 | 0.99 | 2.30 | 0.43 |
| P/AFFO | 54.47 | 57.07 | 41.30 | 70.31 | 10.11 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.55 | 1.40 | 0.97 | 2.24 | 0.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 15.95 | 14.80 | 9.02 | 25.12 | 5.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates REXR's fair value at $49.09 vs the current price of $37.47, implying +31.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $49.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $40.58 (P10) to $58.69 (P90), with a median of $49.51.
REXR's current P/E of 31.2x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (15 peers in the group). This represents a +16.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 72.6x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
21 analysts cover REXR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $42.80 (range: $40.00 — $45.00), implying +14.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 33.4% is 10.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (22.9%), with a Z-score of +2.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$60. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that REXR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.2σ, meaning margins are 2.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5960.0% to approximately $60. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.