MODEL VERDICT
RF Industries, Ltd. (RFIL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 18 analyst estimates | $9.74 | -14.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $6.67 | -41.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $0.20 | -98.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 16 industry peers | $10.77 | -5.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 17 industry peers | $4.17 | -63.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 18 industry peers | $11.84 | +4.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 28 industry peers | $34.45 | +203.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 28 industry peers | $34.60 | +204.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 14 industry peers | $0.21 | -98.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 18 industry peers | $11.82 | +4.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.03 | -20.4% | 100% | 80 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 1361× | 1491× | 1621× (Current) | 1751× | 1881× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Conservative (7%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 223.58 | 27.75 | 13.11 | 825.71 | 401.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 43.83 | 31.32 | 9.66 | 103.03 | 43.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.10 | 15.56 | 10.56 | 55.08 | 18.56 |
| P/FCF | 60.64 | 16.89 | 11.02 | 242.61 | 101.76 |
| P/FFO | 24.05 | 16.78 | 11.69 | 50.94 | 15.72 |
| P/TBV | 2.67 | 2.44 | 1.85 | 3.97 | 0.77 |
| P/AFFO | 47.94 | 27.03 | 12.08 | 113.71 | 42.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.52 | 1.48 | 0.79 | 2.11 | 0.48 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.88 | 0.77 | 0.43 | 1.41 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates RFIL's fair value at $9.03 vs the current price of $11.35, implying -20.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.87 (P10) to $17.09 (P90), with a median of $12.26.
RFIL's current P/E of 1621.4x compares to the industry median of 28.6x (14 peers in the group). This represents a +5569.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 223.6x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
2 analysts cover RFIL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RFIL trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (223.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RFIL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (1.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12960.0% to approximately $26. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.