MODEL VERDICT
REGENXBIO Inc. (RGNX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $9.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $8.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $9.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $9.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $8.80 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $16.44 | +80.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $16.80 | +84.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.94 | +151.5% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.66 | 2.52 | 1.47 | 4.48 | 1.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.66 | 2.52 | 1.47 | 4.48 | 1.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.24 | 8.68 | 3.05 | 42.66 | 13.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates RGNX's fair value at $22.94 vs the current price of $9.12, implying +151.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.46 (P10) to $34.03 (P90), with a median of $21.21.
RGNX's current P/E of -2.0x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -108.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover RGNX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $25.75 (range: $12.00 — $45.00), implying +182.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (13), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RGNX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.