MODEL VERDICT
Resources Connection, Inc. (RGP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $1.16 | -73.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $9.77 | +124.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $11.28 | +159.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $29.67 | +582.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $26.70 | +513.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $9.74 | +123.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.50 | +118.5% | 100% | 55 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.28 | 14.02 | 8.91 | 22.87 | 5.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.66 | 10.48 | 5.06 | 38.44 | 12.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.78 | 7.68 | 4.74 | 18.09 | 4.93 |
| P/FCF | 11.79 | 13.27 | 6.08 | 16.09 | 3.57 |
| P/FFO | 11.02 | 10.09 | 7.70 | 16.90 | 3.47 |
| P/TBV | 4.02 | 4.20 | 1.05 | 6.83 | 2.38 |
| P/AFFO | 12.11 | 10.62 | 7.95 | 19.04 | 4.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.33 | 1.33 | 0.69 | 1.86 | 0.46 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.30 | 0.92 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates RGP's fair value at $9.50 vs the current price of $4.35, implying +118.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 55/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.01 (P10) to $10.55 (P90), with a median of $8.16.
RGP's current P/E of -0.8x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -102.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.3x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover RGP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $13.00 (range: $13.00 — $13.00), implying +198.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (8), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 55/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RGP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.