MODEL VERDICT
Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $9.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $10.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $10.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $10.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $9.94 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 3 REIT peers | $12.87 | +31.5% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $16.91 | +72.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $9.65 | -1.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $13.71 | +40.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $14.42 | +47.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $17.28 | +76.5% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $21.01 | +114.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $24.73 | +152.6% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.53 | +38.2% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $5 | $8 | $10 | $12 | $14 |
| Conservative (7%) | $6 | $8 | $10 | $12 | $14 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $6 | $8 | $10 | $13 | $15 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $6 | $8 | $11 | $13 | $15 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.39 | 8.40 | 4.54 | 12.02 | 2.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.09 | 14.00 | 8.47 | 35.21 | 10.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.91 | 13.85 | 8.47 | 24.90 | 5.60 |
| P/FCF | 3.26 | 2.44 | 0.68 | 7.45 | 2.97 |
| P/FFO | 6.37 | 6.44 | 4.04 | 7.94 | 1.62 |
| P/AFFO | 5.73 | 6.52 | 4.04 | 6.63 | 1.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.56 | 0.91 | 0.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.83 | 1.73 | 1.08 | 2.84 | 0.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates RITM's fair value at $13.53 vs the current price of $9.79, implying +38.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.26 (P10) to $17.24 (P90), with a median of $13.26.
RITM's current P/E of 9.4x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -32.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.4x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover RITM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $13.63 (range: $12.50 — $15.00), implying +39.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RITM trades at the 4000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RITM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (6.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5430.0% to approximately $4. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.