MODEL VERDICT
Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $15.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $16.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $15.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.85 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $2.44 | -83.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $74.45 | +408.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 3 bank peers | $1.97 | -86.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $2.40 | -83.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $6.25 | -57.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.04 | +112.0% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 58× | 64× | 70× (Current) | 76× | 82× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
| Conservative (7%) | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 | $18 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $13 | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 | $20 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 91.94 | 32.55 | 6.03 | 296.61 | 138.09 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.87 | 14.49 | 2.94 | 31.58 | 13.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.18 | 12.90 | 2.92 | 28.03 | 11.26 |
| P/FCF | 192.89 | 3.74 | 1.29 | 573.64 | 329.74 |
| P/FFO | 98.69 | 72.74 | 8.63 | 302.65 | 120.46 |
| P/TBV | 23.06 | 9.05 | 0.47 | 51.18 | 23.58 |
| P/AFFO | 279.23 | 105.25 | 14.17 | 833.14 | 351.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.68 | 1.63 | 0.18 | 3.45 | 1.47 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.40 | 2.11 | 0.15 | 7.16 | 2.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates RKT's fair value at $31.04 vs the current price of $14.64, implying +112.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.16 (P10) to $49.79 (P90), with a median of $33.05.
RKT's current P/E of 69.7x compares to the industry median of 11.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +499.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 91.9x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
25 analysts cover RKT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $21.63 (range: $17.00 — $25.00), implying +47.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (15), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RKT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (7.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 168420.0% to approximately $261. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.