MODEL VERDICT
Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $362.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $371.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $386.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $369.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $379.87 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $276.01 | -23.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $118.62 | -67.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $189.13 | -47.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $245.47 | -32.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $99.49 | -72.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $148.47 | -59.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $203.80 | -43.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $66.72 | -81.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $37.91 | -89.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $187.89 | -48.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $246.11 | -32.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $213.74 | -41.0% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $337 | $362 | $386 | $411 | $436 |
| Conservative (12%) | $351 | $377 | $403 | $429 | $455 |
| Base Case (18.4%) | $371 | $399 | $426 | $454 | $481 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $392 | $421 | $450 | $479 | $508 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.57 | 21.54 | 13.08 | 30.46 | 5.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.15 | 18.21 | 11.60 | 27.95 | 5.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.19 | 16.39 | 9.12 | 47.93 | 13.21 |
| P/FCF | 24.25 | 16.97 | 14.30 | 51.42 | 13.39 |
| P/FFO | 22.67 | 13.45 | 9.46 | 69.06 | 20.95 |
| P/TBV | 7.30 | 5.64 | 4.35 | 13.82 | 3.51 |
| P/AFFO | 84.20 | 20.88 | 11.84 | 467.18 | 168.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.49 | 3.35 | 2.91 | 8.74 | 2.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.87 | 1.54 | 1.26 | 3.20 | 0.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates RL's fair value at $213.74 vs the current price of $362.21, implying -41.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $213.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $174.54 (P10) to $239.02 (P90), with a median of $205.72.
RL's current P/E of 31.2x compares to the industry median of 16.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +91.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.6x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
48 analysts cover RL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $428.75 (range: $400.00 — $477.00), implying +18.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (31), Hold (13), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 11.7% is 5.7 percentage points above the 6-year average (9.3%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$199. (2) Multiple compression: RL trades at the 7270th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.6×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (9.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4500.0% to approximately $199. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.