MODEL VERDICT
RLX Technology Inc. (RLX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $2.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $2.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $2.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $2.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $2.09 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $17.98 | +721.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $10.15 | +363.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $11.93 | +444.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $18.94 | +764.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $57.41 | +2521.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $16.03 | +632.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $9.46 | +332.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $10.09 | +360.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $11.31 | +416.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.73 | +572.5% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 29× | 32× | 35× (Current) | 38× | 41× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (28%) | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 | $23 |
| Conservative (45%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 |
| Base Case (69.5%) | $21 | $23 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Bull Case (94%) | $24 | $27 | $29 | $32 | $34 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 3.71 | 3.85 | 2.11 | 5.02 | 1.52 |
| P/FCF | 7.39 | 5.06 | 3.31 | 16.12 | 6.05 |
| P/FFO | 3.39 | 3.45 | 2.01 | 4.65 | 1.26 |
| P/TBV | 0.24 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.41 | 0.11 |
| P/AFFO | 3.52 | 3.65 | 2.06 | 4.73 | 1.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.24 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.41 | 0.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.13 | 0.89 | 0.57 | 2.15 | 0.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates RLX's fair value at $14.73 vs the current price of $2.19, implying +572.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.02 (P10) to $13.95 (P90), with a median of $12.47.
RLX's current P/E of 34.8x compares to the industry median of 23.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +47.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 3.7x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
1 analysts cover RLX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (22), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RLX trades at the 8330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (3.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RLX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (16.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4840.0% to approximately $1. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.