MODEL VERDICT
Rimini Street, Inc. (RMNI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $4.02 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $4.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $3.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $3.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $3.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $3.92 | -2.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $8.47 | +110.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $6.19 | +54.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $7.36 | +83.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $4.84 | +20.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $7.38 | +83.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $12.85 | +219.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $9.93 | +147.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $8.65 | +115.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $6.16 | +53.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $7.36 | +83.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.19 | +78.8% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $3 | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 |
| Conservative (13%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $6 |
| Base Case (19.5%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
| Bull Case (26%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.98 | 10.61 | 7.02 | 27.69 | 9.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.21 | 12.09 | 4.43 | 38.81 | 13.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.77 | 9.33 | 4.59 | 19.44 | 5.34 |
| P/FCF | 17.17 | 9.56 | 6.59 | 55.72 | 19.06 |
| P/FFO | 18.78 | 10.56 | 6.34 | 60.14 | 20.52 |
| P/AFFO | 55.43 | 12.73 | 6.50 | 273.12 | 106.71 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.89 | 0.87 | 0.56 | 1.42 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates RMNI's fair value at $7.19 vs the current price of $4.02, implying +78.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.65 (P10) to $8.12 (P90), with a median of $6.80.
RMNI's current P/E of 10.3x compares to the industry median of 15.9x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -35.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.0x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover RMNI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $7.17 (range: $6.50 — $8.50), implying +78.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RMNI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (3.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3810.0% to approximately $2. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.