MODEL VERDICT
Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $39.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $39.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $39.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $38.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $40.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $88.22 | +125.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $79.30 | +102.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $79.55 | +102.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $103.31 | +163.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $75.31 | +92.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $114.57 | +192.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $81.47 | +107.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $121.89 | +210.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $112.12 | +186.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $79.56 | +103.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $103.86 | +164.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $100.23 | +155.7% | 100% | 90 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $27 | $34 | $41 | $47 | $54 |
| Conservative (7%) | $28 | $35 | $42 | $49 | $56 |
| Base Case (10.6%) | $29 | $36 | $43 | $50 | $58 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $30 | $37 | $45 | $52 | $59 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.79 | 22.00 | 13.21 | 36.70 | 8.30 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.19 | 15.65 | 10.30 | 22.07 | 4.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.41 | 13.35 | 9.33 | 19.11 | 3.92 |
| P/FCF | 72.80 | 13.90 | 11.74 | 410.82 | 149.21 |
| P/FFO | 17.43 | 17.63 | 11.01 | 27.70 | 5.93 |
| P/TBV | 10.88 | 8.58 | 3.78 | 32.37 | 9.98 |
| P/AFFO | 21.05 | 19.61 | 12.52 | 32.70 | 6.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.29 | 2.45 | 1.56 | 3.18 | 0.60 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.61 | 1.65 | 1.06 | 2.29 | 0.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ROCK's fair value at $100.23 vs the current price of $39.20, implying +155.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $100.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $77.61 (P10) to $157.57 (P90), with a median of $101.35.
ROCK's current P/E of 12.1x compares to the industry median of 24.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -50.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover ROCK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ROCK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 11900.0% to approximately $86. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.