MODEL VERDICT
Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $228.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $226.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $227.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $224.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $221.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $144.31 | -36.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $158.80 | -30.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $143.72 | -37.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $119.46 | -47.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $143.03 | -37.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $130.46 | -43.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $224.66 | -1.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $132.47 | -42.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $115.04 | -49.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $144.03 | -37.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $119.74 | -47.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $206.32 | -9.8% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 29× | 32× | 35× (Current) | 38× | 41× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (38%) | $264 | $291 | $318 | $346 | $373 |
| Conservative (61%) | $309 | $341 | $373 | $405 | $437 |
| Base Case (94.1%) | $372 | $411 | $449 | $488 | $526 |
| Bull Case (127%) | $435 | $480 | $525 | $570 | $615 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 94.72 | 25.31 | 23.47 | 511.71 | 183.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 49.31 | 19.93 | 17.62 | 228.77 | 79.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.42 | 17.29 | 15.27 | 56.01 | 14.83 |
| P/FCF | 29.46 | 26.66 | 23.66 | 38.70 | 5.36 |
| P/FFO | 31.07 | 20.36 | 19.25 | 96.86 | 29.02 |
| P/TBV | 10.39 | 9.59 | 8.98 | 13.23 | 1.74 |
| P/AFFO | 165.32 | 28.87 | 26.41 | 985.44 | 361.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.39 | 9.59 | 8.98 | 13.23 | 1.74 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.51 | 2.37 | 2.14 | 3.48 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ROST's fair value at $206.32 vs the current price of $228.84, implying -9.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $206.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $143.58 (P10) to $322.06 (P90), with a median of $209.73.
ROST's current P/E of 34.6x compares to the industry median of 21.7x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +59.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 94.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
47 analysts cover ROST with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $213.80 (range: $195.00 — $290.00), implying -6.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (31), Hold (12), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ROST's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 21600.0% to approximately $723. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.