MODEL VERDICT
Red River Bancshares, Inc. (RRBI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $90.92 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $90.70 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $89.01 | CURRENT | — |
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $91.20 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $91.34 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $96.44 | +6.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $77.58 | -14.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $95.19 | +4.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $19.25 | -78.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $96.28 | +5.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $84.97 | -6.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $84.63 | -6.9% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $67 | $80 | $93 | $106 | $120 |
| Conservative (7%) | $68 | $82 | $96 | $109 | $123 |
| Base Case (10.7%) | $71 | $85 | $99 | $113 | $127 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $73 | $88 | $102 | $117 | $131 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.07 | 11.55 | 9.95 | 16.06 | 1.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.17 | 2.53 | 2.08 | 8.87 | 2.88 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.96 | 2.35 | 1.96 | 8.23 | 2.69 |
| P/FCF | 18.72 | 11.19 | 6.64 | 63.15 | 19.86 |
| P/FFO | 11.26 | 10.86 | 9.30 | 14.68 | 1.90 |
| P/TBV | 1.34 | 1.32 | 1.17 | 1.59 | 0.13 |
| P/AFFO | 13.38 | 12.25 | 11.46 | 17.05 | 2.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.34 | 1.31 | 1.17 | 1.58 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.34 | 3.27 | 2.38 | 4.51 | 0.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates RRBI's fair value at $84.63 vs the current price of $90.92, implying -6.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $84.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $74.91 (P10) to $83.95 (P90), with a median of $79.31.
RRBI's current P/E of 14.3x compares to the industry median of 15.1x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -5.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
3 analysts cover RRBI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $94.00 (range: $94.00 — $94.00), implying +3.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RRBI trades at the 6120th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RRBI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (27.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 680.0% to approximately $85. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.