MODEL VERDICT
Range Resources Corporation (RRC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $42.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $42.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $41.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $41.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $42.84 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $52.21 | +22.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $42.41 | -0.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $46.55 | +9.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $25.94 | -39.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $40.30 | -5.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $31.77 | -25.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $46.90 | +10.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $40.13 | -5.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $46.46 | +9.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $25.79 | -39.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.25 | -0.9% | 100% | 86 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $34 | $40 | $46 | $51 | $57 |
| Conservative (7%) | $35 | $41 | $47 | $53 | $58 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $36 | $42 | $48 | $54 | $60 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $37 | $44 | $50 | $56 | $62 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.16 | 11.07 | 5.33 | 33.01 | 10.91 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.39 | 10.38 | 5.14 | 27.75 | 8.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.36 | 7.87 | 2.43 | 17.39 | 5.87 |
| P/FCF | 15.59 | 14.33 | 4.48 | 27.64 | 8.67 |
| P/FFO | 7.54 | 5.98 | 4.01 | 13.98 | 3.87 |
| P/TBV | 1.70 | 1.96 | 0.51 | 2.22 | 0.67 |
| P/AFFO | 11.97 | 12.13 | 5.87 | 17.77 | 4.86 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.70 | 1.96 | 0.51 | 2.22 | 0.67 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.88 | 1.24 | 0.46 | 3.72 | 1.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates RRC's fair value at $42.25 vs the current price of $42.63, implying -0.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $36.03 (P10) to $47.77 (P90), with a median of $41.63.
RRC's current P/E of 15.6x compares to the industry median of 17.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -8.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.2x over 5 years. Signal: Fair Value.
62 analysts cover RRC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $46.57 (range: $43.00 — $54.00), implying +9.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (24), Hold (37), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RRC trades at the 4630th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RRC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (4.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8440.0% to approximately $7. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.