MODEL VERDICT
Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $52.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $54.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $56.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $56.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $56.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $62.58 | +18.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $154.28 | +192.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $70.17 | +32.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $46.03 | -12.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $175.04 | +231.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $136.99 | +159.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $92.73 | +75.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $50.10 | -5.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $70.26 | +33.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $46.18 | -12.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $103.47 | +96.0% | 100% | 88 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $42 | $49 | $55 | $62 | $68 |
| Conservative (7%) | $43 | $50 | $56 | $63 | $70 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $45 | $51 | $58 | $65 | $72 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $46 | $53 | $60 | $67 | $74 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.51 | 18.28 | 11.91 | 19.86 | 3.21 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.48 | 15.49 | 10.38 | 45.94 | 12.12 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.77 | 12.59 | 7.89 | 17.90 | 3.49 |
| P/FCF | 18.02 | 19.14 | 11.78 | 22.00 | 4.37 |
| P/FFO | 18.01 | 16.03 | 12.54 | 36.32 | 8.31 |
| P/TBV | 72.01 | 61.01 | 5.85 | 160.16 | 76.78 |
| P/AFFO | 78.34 | 19.20 | 14.70 | 209.72 | 88.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 46.24 | 19.13 | 3.58 | 129.88 | 56.94 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.76 | 2.52 | 1.51 | 3.96 | 0.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates RRR's fair value at $103.47 vs the current price of $52.78, implying +96.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 88/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $103.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $88.86 (P10) to $109.95 (P90), with a median of $99.19.
RRR's current P/E of 16.9x compares to the industry median of 22.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -24.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.5x over 5 years. Signal: Discount.
30 analysts cover RRR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $71.44 (range: $63.00 — $79.00), implying +35.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 88/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RRR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (24.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 17570.0% to approximately $145. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.