MODEL VERDICT
Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $365.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $351.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $325.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $319.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $322.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $337.03 | -7.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $379.18 | +3.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $398.55 | +9.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $255.61 | -30.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $389.33 | +6.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $233.18 | -36.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $317.02 | -13.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $456.07 | +24.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $450.49 | +23.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $398.53 | +9.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $255.61 | -30.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $313.23 | -14.3% | 100% | 81 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $332 | $362 | $392 | $422 | $453 |
| Conservative (13%) | $347 | $379 | $410 | $442 | $473 |
| Base Case (19.8%) | $368 | $402 | $435 | $469 | $502 |
| Bull Case (27%) | $390 | $425 | $461 | $496 | $532 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.89 | 12.35 | 6.77 | 21.16 | 5.93 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.63 | 9.44 | 5.27 | 16.63 | 4.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.63 | 8.47 | 4.78 | 13.11 | 2.96 |
| P/FCF | 14.33 | 13.73 | 7.01 | 30.40 | 8.34 |
| P/FFO | 10.42 | 10.44 | 5.98 | 15.01 | 3.54 |
| P/TBV | 3.57 | 3.59 | 3.14 | 3.77 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 14.75 | 14.84 | 7.16 | 22.18 | 6.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.84 | 1.75 | 1.53 | 2.13 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.91 | 0.89 | 0.73 | 1.11 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates RS's fair value at $313.23 vs the current price of $365.59, implying -14.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $313.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $262.71 (P10) to $336.08 (P90), with a median of $298.34.
RS's current P/E of 26.2x compares to the industry median of 28.5x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -8.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
27 analysts cover RS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $362.00 (range: $330.00 — $390.00), implying -1.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (16), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RS trades at the 3640th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 290.0% to approximately $376. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.