MODEL VERDICT
Reservoir Media, Inc. (RSVR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $8.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $7.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $7.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $7.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $7.38 | Below threshold | +2.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 24 analyst estimates | $2.41 | -73.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $3.88 | -56.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 18 industry peers | $3.26 | -63.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 23 industry peers | $3.66 | -59.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Price / Sales 29 industry peers | $2.80 | -68.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 18 industry peers | $3.26 | -63.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.61 | -26.4% | 100% | 59 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 63× | 69× | 75× (Current) | 81× | 87× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Conservative (5%) | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Base Case (-67.6%) | $2 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| Bull Case (-91%) | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 245.97 | 113.86 | 35.95 | 720.20 | 319.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.22 | 30.17 | 25.29 | 35.25 | 4.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.56 | 15.92 | 15.80 | 18.62 | 1.37 |
| P/FFO | 16.45 | 16.63 | 14.40 | 18.15 | 1.71 |
| P/AFFO | 17.29 | 17.57 | 15.99 | 18.31 | 1.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.34 | 1.32 | 1.11 | 1.63 | 0.22 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.61 | 3.49 | 3.17 | 4.29 | 0.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates RSVR's fair value at $6.61 vs the current price of $8.97, implying -26.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.95 (P10) to $11.74 (P90), with a median of $6.99.
RSVR's current P/E of 74.8x compares to the industry median of 27.2x (18 peers in the group). This represents a +175.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 246.0x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
1 analysts cover RSVR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $11.50 (range: $11.50 — $11.50), implying +28.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RSVR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (5.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 39200.0% to approximately $44. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.