MODEL VERDICT
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $96.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $78.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $76.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $82.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $89.46 | Below threshold | -8.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 24 analyst estimates | $75.50 | -21.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $64.77 | -32.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 18 industry peers | $68.70 | -28.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 23 industry peers | $37.76 | -60.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 23 industry peers | $52.78 | -45.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $44.24 | -54.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $25.92 | -73.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 29 industry peers | $17.72 | -81.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 29 industry peers | $11.38 | -88.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 18 industry peers | $68.70 | -28.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $37.76 | -60.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $75.77 | -21.3% | 100% | 81 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 32× | 35× | 38× (Current) | 41× | 44× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $92 | $100 | $109 | $117 | $126 |
| Conservative (21%) | $98 | $108 | $117 | $126 | $135 |
| Base Case (33.0%) | $108 | $118 | $128 | $138 | $148 |
| Bull Case (45%) | $117 | $128 | $139 | $150 | $161 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 53.29 | 44.95 | 29.64 | 88.93 | 22.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 40.43 | 37.60 | 24.27 | 58.60 | 12.91 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.15 | 13.64 | 7.25 | 16.50 | 3.23 |
| P/FCF | 68.10 | 56.56 | 31.60 | 127.30 | 38.11 |
| P/FFO | 13.62 | 14.59 | 7.06 | 17.95 | 3.66 |
| P/AFFO | 13.97 | 14.96 | 7.21 | 18.62 | 3.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 15.26 | 15.82 | 6.41 | 22.19 | 5.30 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.00 | 8.96 | 4.21 | 10.04 | 2.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NFLX's fair value at $75.77 vs the current price of $96.24, implying -21.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $75.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $59.89 (P10) to $95.04 (P90), with a median of $77.04.
NFLX's current P/E of 38.0x compares to the industry median of 27.2x (18 peers in the group). This represents a +40.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 53.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
97 analysts cover NFLX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $117.25 (range: $95.00 — $152.00), implying +21.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (60), Hold (30), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 24.3% is 8.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (16.3%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$91. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NFLX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 590.0% to approximately $91. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.