MODEL VERDICT
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $223.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $211.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $206.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $214.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $199.63 | Below threshold | +4.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 24 analyst estimates | $145.28 | -35.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $47.68 | -78.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 18 industry peers | $61.37 | -72.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 23 industry peers | $113.88 | -49.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 23 industry peers | $58.51 | -73.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $120.58 | -46.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $1.14 | -99.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 29 industry peers | $27.52 | -87.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 29 industry peers | $26.45 | -88.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 18 industry peers | $61.37 | -72.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $113.88 | -49.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $167.16 | -25.3% | 100% | 78 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 83× | 91× | 99× (Current) | 107× | 115× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $191 | $210 | $228 | $247 | $265 |
| Conservative (5%) | $197 | $216 | $235 | $254 | $273 |
| Base Case (1.2%) | $190 | $208 | $226 | $245 | $263 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $191 | $209 | $227 | $246 | $264 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 469.86 | 49.44 | 14.70 | 2597.99 | 1043.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 37.97 | 22.23 | 15.28 | 95.02 | 30.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.02 | 18.21 | 12.71 | 33.25 | 8.59 |
| P/FCF | 37.62 | 29.44 | 11.65 | 112.78 | 35.53 |
| P/FFO | 33.79 | 36.51 | 12.74 | 60.72 | 18.73 |
| P/AFFO | 45.92 | 42.57 | 13.10 | 83.65 | 31.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.53 | 4.40 | 0.76 | 21.26 | 7.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.75 | 5.00 | 3.75 | 8.71 | 2.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TKO's fair value at $167.16 vs the current price of $223.87, implying -25.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $167.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $91.66 (P10) to $394.90 (P90), with a median of $179.95.
TKO's current P/E of 99.1x compares to the industry median of 27.2x (18 peers in the group). This represents a +264.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 469.9x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
18 analysts cover TKO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $233.90 (range: $210.00 — $251.00), implying +4.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TKO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (13.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 141810.0% to approximately $3399. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.