MODEL VERDICT
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $162.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $162.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $158.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $149.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $146.07 | Below threshold | +1.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 24 analyst estimates | $38.72 | -76.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $91.67 | -43.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 23 industry peers | $24.80 | -84.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 23 industry peers | $113.74 | -29.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $49.15 | -69.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 29 industry peers | $220.80 | +36.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 29 industry peers | $115.19 | -29.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $24.80 | -84.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $89.66 | -44.7% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 75.36 | 69.85 | 47.26 | 108.97 | 31.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.00 | 27.25 | 18.86 | 50.64 | 13.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.39 | 15.56 | 14.87 | 23.85 | 4.43 |
| P/FCF | 53.98 | 26.75 | 10.90 | 144.43 | 54.77 |
| P/FFO | 24.43 | 22.54 | 20.14 | 29.22 | 4.40 |
| P/AFFO | 129.53 | 43.74 | 34.04 | 451.71 | 180.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 40.04 | 21.15 | 7.85 | 112.46 | 38.46 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.63 | 1.31 | 0.95 | 8.38 | 2.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates LYV's fair value at $89.66 vs the current price of $162.14, implying -44.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $89.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $73.80 (P10) to $107.51 (P90), with a median of $90.06.
LYV's current P/E of -675.6x compares to the industry median of 30.1x (18 peers in the group). This represents a -2343.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 75.4x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
43 analysts cover LYV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $181.20 (range: $155.00 — $198.00), implying +11.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (37), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LYV.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.