MODEL VERDICT
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $26.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $27.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $27.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $27.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $27.44 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $53.75 | +99.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $22.81 | -15.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $18.88 | -30.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $20.78 | -23.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $22.74 | -15.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $30.61 | +13.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $30.49 | +13.1% | 100% | 69 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.03 | 15.96 | 11.45 | 28.77 | 7.49 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.59 | 13.52 | 12.57 | 18.75 | 2.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.55 | 4.93 | 3.01 | 5.49 | 0.88 |
| P/FCF | 6.52 | 6.48 | 4.50 | 8.72 | 1.39 |
| P/FFO | 2.65 | 2.68 | 1.32 | 3.74 | 1.01 |
| P/AFFO | 2.82 | 2.97 | 1.42 | 3.97 | 1.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.16 | 1.17 | 0.38 | 1.96 | 0.60 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.26 | 1.29 | 0.54 | 2.11 | 0.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates WBD's fair value at $30.49 vs the current price of $26.97, implying +13.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $30.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.07 (P10) to $36.07 (P90), with a median of $27.29.
WBD's current P/E of -5.8x compares to the industry median of 15.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -138.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.0x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
32 analysts cover WBD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $29.94 (range: $28.00 — $31.00), implying +11.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (19), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WBD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.