MODEL VERDICT
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $28.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $28.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $27.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $27.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $28.89 | Below threshold | -5.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $55.81 | +98.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 23 industry peers | $32.60 | +15.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $23.56 | -16.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 29 industry peers | $14.07 | -50.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 29 industry peers | $16.80 | -40.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $32.53 | +15.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $33.40 | +18.6% | 100% | 69 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.03 | 15.96 | 11.45 | 28.77 | 7.49 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.59 | 13.52 | 12.57 | 18.75 | 2.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.55 | 4.93 | 3.01 | 5.49 | 0.88 |
| P/FCF | 6.52 | 6.48 | 4.50 | 8.72 | 1.39 |
| P/FFO | 2.65 | 2.68 | 1.32 | 3.74 | 1.01 |
| P/AFFO | 2.82 | 2.97 | 1.42 | 3.97 | 1.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.16 | 1.17 | 0.38 | 1.96 | 0.60 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.26 | 1.29 | 0.54 | 2.11 | 0.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates WBD's fair value at $33.40 vs the current price of $28.17, implying +18.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $33.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.20 (P10) to $40.29 (P90), with a median of $28.81.
WBD's current P/E of -6.1x compares to the industry median of 30.1x (18 peers in the group). This represents a -120.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.0x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
31 analysts cover WBD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $25.59 (range: $16.00 — $31.00), implying -9.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (18), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WBD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.