Rumble Inc. (RUM)
Valuation Overview•Is Rumble Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Moderate quality score of 48/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
RUM struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($236M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (36.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-69.3%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $25.5M | +5.4% | +36.7% | +85.7% | — | |
| EBITDA | -$26.2M | — | -23.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$30.3M | +75.8% | -92.9% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.12 | +80.7% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$17.7M | +16.9% | -21.7% | -431.2% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 14.7% | -37.1% | -21.0% | -2.5% |
| Operating Margin | -69.3% | -127.0% | -116.5% | -88.6% |
| Net Margin | -106.9% | -193.2% | -150.0% | -112.6% |
| FCF Margin | -76.5% | -100.2% | -96.2% | -64.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.09 | $-0.11 | -22.2% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.11 | $-0.15 | -36.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.07 | $-0.08 | -14.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.08 | $-0.14 | -75.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.11 | $-0.12 | -9.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.13 | $-0.44 | -238.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.13 | $-0.15 | -20.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.15 | $-0.18 | -20.0% |
Total return is -28.4% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -49.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -2.7% | -10.0% | — |
| 1Y | -28.4% | -49.2% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -11.8% | -29.3% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -8.5% | -18.6% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -4.4% | -17.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Rumble Inc. (RUM) valuation, health, and returns.
Rumble Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. overvalued (implying -71.0% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $1.83)
Rumble Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $1.83 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $11.50 (implying +82.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Rumble Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 48/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 24.5 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -148.9%.
Rumble Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 19.1% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +24.8% in the last 12 months.
Rumble Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +5.4% 1Y revenue growth and +80.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +36.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 3 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 25% of recent quarters with a -8-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +82.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Rumble Inc. include: -53.4% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (3.05x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 3.05x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.