MODEL VERDICT
Revolve Group, Inc. (RVLV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $24.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $26.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $27.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $25.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $24.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $11.99 | -52.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $13.10 | -47.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $12.58 | -49.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $9.87 | -60.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $16.21 | -35.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $17.77 | -28.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $0.66 | -97.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $21.05 | -15.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $11.28 | -54.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $12.36 | -50.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $9.87 | -60.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.49 | -22.0% | 100% | 86 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $22 | $24 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Conservative (5%) | $23 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Base Case (1.7%) | $22 | $24 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $27 | $29 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.45 | 40.64 | 28.18 | 48.54 | 7.09 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.36 | 34.39 | 19.81 | 45.88 | 10.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.39 | 31.87 | 18.59 | 38.61 | 8.67 |
| P/FCF | 59.09 | 45.35 | 31.17 | 114.07 | 33.27 |
| P/FFO | 34.65 | 36.45 | 26.13 | 43.87 | 6.62 |
| P/TBV | 7.20 | 5.54 | 3.20 | 13.31 | 3.90 |
| P/AFFO | 39.50 | 39.64 | 28.44 | 48.92 | 6.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.10 | 5.48 | 3.17 | 13.18 | 3.84 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.41 | 1.78 | 1.14 | 4.69 | 1.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates RVLV's fair value at $19.49 vs the current price of $24.98, implying -22.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.56 (P10) to $22.82 (P90), with a median of $20.09.
RVLV's current P/E of 29.0x compares to the industry median of 14.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +98.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 39.5x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
30 analysts cover RVLV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $29.10 (range: $21.00 — $35.00), implying +16.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RVLV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (7.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9130.0% to approximately $48. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.