MODEL VERDICT
Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $8.59 | CURRENT | -20.8% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $8.89 | Pending | -25.9% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $9.30 | Monitoring | -29.1% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $9.32 | Monitoring | -23.2% |
| Nov 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $9.98 | Monitoring | -12.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 44 industry peers | $22.18 | +158.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 45 industry peers | $20.98 | +144.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 43 bank peers | $20.62 | +140.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 33 industry peers | $53.12 | +518.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $23.21 | +170.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 42 analyst estimates | $13.06 | +52.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.47 | +149.9% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 5× | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $8 | $8 | $10 | $14 | $19 |
| Conservative (15%) | $9 | $9 | $11 | $15 | $20 |
| Base Case (23.0%) | $9 | $9 | $12 | $16 | $21 |
| Bull Case (31%) | $10 | $10 | $12 | $17 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.42 | 10.61 | 5.80 | 14.67 | 3.71 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.13 | 18.09 | 12.77 | 31.57 | 8.96 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.13 | 18.09 | 12.77 | 31.57 | 8.96 |
| P/FCF | 7.56 | 8.43 | 4.55 | 9.70 | 2.68 |
| P/TBV | 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 0.93 | 0.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 0.93 | 0.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.71 | 7.01 | 3.43 | 9.40 | 2.79 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates RWAY's fair value at $21.47 vs the current price of $8.59, implying +149.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.93 (P10) to $29.33 (P90), with a median of $22.00.
RWAY's current P/E of 4.5x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (44 peers in the group). This represents a -61.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.4x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover RWAY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $12.50 (range: $12.50 — $12.50), implying +45.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RWAY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (73.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 18510.0% to approximately $24. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.