MODEL VERDICT
Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (RYAN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $30.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $34.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $37.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $36.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $34.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $8.24 | -73.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $15.05 | -51.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $33.51 | +8.7% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $13.99 | -54.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $8.14 | -73.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $29.62 | -3.9% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $23.51 | -23.7% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.25 | -18.1% | 100% | 83 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 56× | 61× | 66× (Current) | 71× | 76× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $27 | $29 | $32 | $34 | $36 |
| Conservative (5%) | $28 | $30 | $33 | $35 | $38 |
| Base Case (-6.0%) | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 | $34 |
| Bull Case (-8%) | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 90.69 | 86.55 | 79.83 | 109.85 | 13.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 36.67 | 39.47 | 18.82 | 47.70 | 11.10 |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.87 | 31.92 | 19.01 | 46.70 | 12.73 |
| P/FCF | 25.07 | 24.98 | 12.09 | 37.69 | 11.12 |
| P/FFO | 45.49 | 40.98 | 23.89 | 67.23 | 19.70 |
| P/AFFO | 53.16 | 50.82 | 25.28 | 81.91 | 23.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.74 | 11.47 | 5.52 | 16.06 | 4.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.74 | 4.71 | 2.60 | 7.01 | 1.97 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates RYAN's fair value at $25.25 vs the current price of $30.83, implying -18.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.86 (P10) to $29.99 (P90), with a median of $26.37.
RYAN's current P/E of 65.6x compares to the industry median of 17.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +274.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 90.7x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover RYAN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $45.60 (range: $31.00 — $66.00), implying +47.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RYAN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (5.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7870.0% to approximately $55. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.