MODEL VERDICT
Safehold Inc. (SAFE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $14.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $15.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $15.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $15.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $15.03 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $26.57 | +78.8% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $13.79 | -7.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $50.91 | +242.6% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $46.85 | +215.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $44.73 | +201.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $11.48 | -22.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $49.79 | +235.1% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.49 | +138.8% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $8 | $11 | $15 | $18 | $21 |
| Conservative (5%) | $8 | $12 | $15 | $18 | $22 |
| Base Case (6.3%) | $8 | $12 | $15 | $19 | $22 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $9 | $12 | $16 | $19 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.41 | 12.84 | 1.73 | 61.96 | 27.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.01 | 29.50 | 16.82 | 46.76 | 13.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 53.26 | 47.41 | 17.25 | 92.41 | 28.30 |
| P/FCF | 187.46 | 34.88 | 20.55 | 752.72 | 317.63 |
| P/FFO | 25.00 | 12.68 | 7.99 | 52.78 | 21.55 |
| P/TBV | 1.39 | 0.75 | 0.44 | 3.31 | 1.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.19 | 0.68 | 0.40 | 2.73 | 1.04 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.07 | 5.57 | 2.55 | 23.98 | 9.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates SAFE's fair value at $35.49 vs the current price of $14.86, implying +138.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.61 (P10) to $44.28 (P90), with a median of $33.79.
SAFE's current P/E of 9.3x compares to the industry median of 29.5x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -68.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.4x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover SAFE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.00 (range: $14.00 — $14.00), implying -5.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (6), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SAFE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (28.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 17200.0% to approximately $40. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.