MODEL VERDICT
SAP SE (SAP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $201.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $202.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $204.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $212.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $247.11 | Below threshold | -14.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $147.43 | -26.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $205.61 | +2.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $155.53 | -22.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $131.91 | -34.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $213.41 | +5.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $122.35 | -39.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $62.70 | -68.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $107.47 | -46.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $103.31 | -48.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $168.33 | -16.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $132.07 | -34.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $184.79 | -8.3% | 100% | 81 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $154 | $166 | $178 | $191 | $203 |
| Conservative (5%) | $157 | $170 | $182 | $195 | $208 |
| Base Case (6.6%) | $160 | $172 | $185 | $198 | $211 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $163 | $176 | $189 | $202 | $215 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.38 | 40.55 | 29.73 | 92.91 | 22.49 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.93 | 25.04 | 18.15 | 50.31 | 11.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.47 | 25.53 | 16.75 | 49.04 | 10.62 |
| P/FCF | 39.10 | 32.89 | 24.16 | 65.69 | 16.70 |
| P/FFO | 33.34 | 30.81 | 22.09 | 65.97 | 15.09 |
| P/TBV | 21.26 | 20.51 | 15.44 | 25.56 | 3.96 |
| P/AFFO | 39.24 | 36.56 | 25.02 | 80.55 | 19.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.78 | 4.62 | 2.83 | 6.34 | 1.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.30 | 5.85 | 4.11 | 8.50 | 1.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SAP's fair value at $184.79 vs the current price of $201.53, implying -8.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $184.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $154.47 (P10) to $217.63 (P90), with a median of $185.70.
SAP's current P/E of 28.5x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +9.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
43 analysts cover SAP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $415.33 (range: $245.00 — $718.00), implying +106.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (13), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SAP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 620.0% to approximately $214. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.