MODEL VERDICT
SAP SE (SAP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $170.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $175.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $181.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $172.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $163.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $144.51 | -15.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $256.71 | +50.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $258.51 | +51.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $136.30 | -20.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $270.15 | +58.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $134.50 | -21.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $76.24 | -55.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $246.11 | +44.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $243.72 | +42.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $279.85 | +63.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $136.22 | -20.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $205.55 | +20.4% | 100% | 86 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $123 | $135 | $148 | $160 | $172 |
| Conservative (5%) | $126 | $138 | $151 | $164 | $176 |
| Base Case (6.6%) | $128 | $140 | $153 | $166 | $179 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $130 | $144 | $157 | $170 | $183 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.38 | 40.55 | 29.73 | 92.91 | 22.49 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.26 | 27.38 | 18.15 | 50.31 | 11.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.47 | 25.53 | 16.75 | 49.04 | 10.62 |
| P/FCF | 39.10 | 32.89 | 24.16 | 65.69 | 16.70 |
| P/FFO | 33.31 | 30.81 | 22.09 | 65.97 | 15.08 |
| P/TBV | 21.26 | 20.51 | 15.44 | 25.56 | 3.96 |
| P/AFFO | 39.20 | 36.56 | 25.02 | 80.55 | 19.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.78 | 4.62 | 2.83 | 6.34 | 1.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.26 | 5.85 | 4.11 | 8.50 | 1.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SAP's fair value at $205.55 vs the current price of $170.76, implying +20.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $205.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $188.94 (P10) to $238.81 (P90), with a median of $213.55.
SAP's current P/E of 24.3x compares to the industry median of 43.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -43.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
43 analysts cover SAP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $391.67 (range: $200.00 — $718.00), implying +129.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (14), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SAP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2960.0% to approximately $221. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.