MODEL VERDICT
Satellogic Inc. (SATL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $7.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $6.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $6.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $6.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $7.33 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $2.75 | -61.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $2.49 | -65.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.10 | -43.0% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 3.19 | 3.03 | 2.41 | 4.14 | 0.88 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.19 | 3.03 | 2.41 | 4.14 | 0.88 |
| P/S Ratio | 49.92 | 20.19 | 14.17 | 157.19 | 61.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates SATL's fair value at $4.10 vs the current price of $7.18, implying -43.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.02 (P10) to $5.42 (P90), with a median of $3.39.
SATL's current P/E of -39.9x compares to the industry median of 21.9x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -282.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover SATL with a consensus rating of Sell. The consensus price target is $5.50 (range: $4.50 — $7.00), implying -23.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (0), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SATL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.