MODEL VERDICT
Sinclair, Inc. (SBGI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $16.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $14.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $14.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $15.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $14.88 | Pending | -1.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 24 analyst estimates | $27.50 | +68.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $52.35 | +220.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 18 industry peers | $155.06 | +849.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 23 industry peers | $3.65 | -77.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 23 industry peers | $111.61 | +583.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $68.45 | +318.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 29 industry peers | $41.78 | +155.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 29 industry peers | $57.27 | +250.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 18 industry peers | $155.06 | +849.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $3.65 | -77.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $62.71 | +283.8% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 5× | 7× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $21 | $21 | $21 | $27 | $37 |
| Conservative (21%) | $23 | $23 | $23 | $28 | $40 |
| Base Case (32.9%) | $25 | $25 | $25 | $31 | $44 |
| Bull Case (45%) | $27 | $27 | $27 | $34 | $47 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.31 | 5.65 | 0.41 | 29.50 | 13.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 60.77 | 9.39 | 6.65 | 298.86 | 117.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.13 | 5.81 | 1.08 | 18.02 | 7.23 |
| P/FCF | 14.66 | 4.94 | 1.58 | 76.20 | 27.23 |
| P/FFO | 3.97 | 3.71 | 0.37 | 7.81 | 3.01 |
| P/AFFO | 5.41 | 4.34 | 0.38 | 11.40 | 4.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.20 | 1.83 | 1.61 | 3.84 | 0.93 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.46 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 0.88 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates SBGI's fair value at $62.71 vs the current price of $16.34, implying +283.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $62.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.47 (P10) to $115.51 (P90), with a median of $68.02.
SBGI's current P/E of 3.5x compares to the industry median of 33.1x (18 peers in the group). This represents a -89.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.3x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover SBGI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $25.74 (range: $15.70 — $50.00), implying +57.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SBGI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.