MODEL VERDICT
Sinclair, Inc. (SBGI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $15.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $15.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $16.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $16.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $14.19 | -6.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $15.32 | +1.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $8.21 | -45.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $46.34 | +205.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $15.12 | -0.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.84 | +44.0% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.12 | 3.44 | 0.41 | 29.50 | 15.99 |
| EV/EBIT | 62.49 | 14.54 | 6.65 | 298.86 | 116.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.04 | 9.88 | 1.08 | 18.02 | 6.91 |
| P/FCF | 15.27 | 5.93 | 1.58 | 76.20 | 27.02 |
| P/FFO | 4.23 | 5.01 | 0.37 | 7.81 | 3.04 |
| P/AFFO | 6.08 | 7.72 | 0.38 | 11.40 | 4.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.44 | 2.07 | 1.61 | 3.84 | 0.91 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.38 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 0.73 | 0.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates SBGI's fair value at $21.84 vs the current price of $15.17, implying +44.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.25 (P10) to $35.21 (P90), with a median of $19.78.
SBGI's current P/E of -9.4x compares to the industry median of 14.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -165.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.1x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover SBGI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.00 (range: $17.00 — $17.00), implying +12.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SBGI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.