MODEL VERDICT
Southside Bancshares, Inc. (SBSI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $34.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $32.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $33.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $32.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $33.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $30.47 | -11.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $36.73 | +6.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $36.30 | +5.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $57.27 | +66.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $30.47 | -11.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $36.40 | +6.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $34.90 | +1.6% | 100% | 97 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $26 | $30 | $35 | $40 | $44 |
| Conservative (5%) | $26 | $31 | $36 | $41 | $46 |
| Base Case (-1.5%) | $25 | $29 | $34 | $38 | $43 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $25 | $29 | $34 | $38 | $43 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.54 | 12.05 | 10.88 | 16.88 | 2.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.87 | 14.60 | 13.06 | 26.51 | 5.26 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.37 | 13.30 | 12.01 | 23.29 | 4.40 |
| P/FCF | 11.92 | 12.50 | 5.34 | 19.45 | 4.32 |
| P/FFO | 11.33 | 10.95 | 9.75 | 14.53 | 1.84 |
| P/TBV | 1.78 | 1.69 | 1.42 | 2.15 | 0.29 |
| P/AFFO | 13.32 | 11.74 | 10.66 | 18.71 | 3.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.33 | 1.25 | 1.08 | 1.56 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.42 | 3.67 | 2.11 | 5.15 | 1.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SBSI's fair value at $34.90 vs the current price of $34.35, implying +1.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $34.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.36 (P10) to $37.62 (P90), with a median of $35.44.
SBSI's current P/E of 15.0x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +12.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.5x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
8 analysts cover SBSI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $35.00 (range: $35.00 — $35.00), implying +1.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SBSI trades at the 6810th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SBSI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (27.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3890.0% to approximately $48. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.