MODEL VERDICT
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $105.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $98.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $100.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $98.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $96.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $53.54 | -49.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $57.13 | -46.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $41.02 | -61.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $56.25 | -46.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $47.75 | -54.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $46.71 | -55.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $41.19 | -61.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $85.07 | -19.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $83.33 | -21.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $41.02 | -61.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $56.25 | -46.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $90.59 | -14.5% | 100% | 73 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 55× | 60× | 65× (Current) | 70× | 75× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $95 | $104 | $113 | $121 | $130 |
| Conservative (10%) | $99 | $108 | $117 | $126 | $135 |
| Base Case (15.6%) | $104 | $113 | $122 | $132 | $141 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $108 | $118 | $128 | $138 | $148 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 48.52 | 33.04 | 26.82 | 135.42 | 39.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.60 | 26.74 | 22.11 | 92.00 | 25.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.91 | 22.11 | 17.97 | 48.07 | 10.48 |
| P/FCF | 188.12 | 33.46 | 30.08 | 1107.08 | 405.26 |
| P/FFO | 26.84 | 23.89 | 19.39 | 52.00 | 11.42 |
| P/AFFO | 55.74 | 38.70 | 32.60 | 133.38 | 37.72 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.76 | 3.56 | 2.58 | 5.38 | 1.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SBUX's fair value at $90.59 vs the current price of $105.90, implying -14.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $90.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $54.20 (P10) to $167.33 (P90), with a median of $86.40.
SBUX's current P/E of 65.0x compares to the industry median of 25.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +158.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 48.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
59 analysts cover SBUX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $108.38 (range: $90.00 — $120.00), implying +2.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (27), Hold (29), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SBUX trades at the 8520th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (48.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SBUX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 19780.0% to approximately $315. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.