MODEL VERDICT
Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $171.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $180.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $194.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $189.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $192.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $87.24 | -49.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $84.45 | -50.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $102.58 | -40.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $116.91 | -31.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $112.75 | -34.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $108.23 | -36.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $173.57 | +1.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $61.65 | -64.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $60.79 | -64.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $100.73 | -41.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $116.91 | -31.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $106.31 | -37.9% | 100% | 93 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $153 | $170 | $187 | $204 | $221 |
| Conservative (14%) | $161 | $179 | $196 | $214 | $232 |
| Base Case (20.9%) | $171 | $190 | $209 | $228 | $247 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $181 | $202 | $222 | $242 | $262 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.40 | 21.07 | 13.38 | 30.54 | 6.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.74 | 13.49 | 8.24 | 17.25 | 3.43 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.73 | 11.48 | 7.26 | 15.68 | 2.91 |
| P/FCF | 23.70 | 23.97 | 13.36 | 35.09 | 6.55 |
| P/FFO | 16.78 | 16.51 | 10.80 | 23.11 | 4.49 |
| P/TBV | 7.13 | 6.72 | 4.66 | 10.95 | 2.18 |
| P/AFFO | 22.94 | 21.82 | 13.72 | 31.01 | 6.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.02 | 6.59 | 4.56 | 10.83 | 2.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.78 | 6.00 | 4.15 | 8.96 | 1.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SCCO's fair value at $106.31 vs the current price of $171.18, implying -37.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $106.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $90.39 (P10) to $106.82 (P90), with a median of $98.49.
SCCO's current P/E of 32.7x compares to the industry median of 19.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +66.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
30 analysts cover SCCO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $156.40 (range: $133.00 — $178.00), implying -8.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (15), Sell (12), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SCCO trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SCCO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (46.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 160.0% to approximately $168. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.