MODEL VERDICT
Service Corporation International (SCI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $79.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $87.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $82.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $80.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $81.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $59.85 | -25.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $71.77 | -10.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $102.64 | +28.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $212.58 | +166.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $102.21 | +28.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $214.88 | +169.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $16.55 | -79.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $68.16 | -14.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $83.99 | +5.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $83.49 | +4.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $108.97 | +36.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $97.83 | +22.6% | 100% | 91 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $66 | $74 | $82 | $89 | $97 |
| Conservative (5%) | $68 | $76 | $84 | $92 | $100 |
| Base Case (5.7%) | $68 | $76 | $84 | $92 | $100 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $70 | $78 | $86 | $94 | $102 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.62 | 19.59 | 15.04 | 23.13 | 2.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.13 | 15.83 | 13.61 | 18.99 | 1.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.14 | 12.19 | 10.81 | 13.09 | 0.87 |
| P/FCF | 20.38 | 20.56 | 15.10 | 24.28 | 2.80 |
| P/FFO | 12.58 | 12.60 | 11.18 | 13.85 | 1.07 |
| P/AFFO | 20.94 | 22.51 | 15.55 | 25.61 | 3.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.17 | 6.62 | 4.68 | 6.98 | 0.93 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.67 | 2.64 | 2.50 | 2.91 | 0.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SCI's fair value at $97.83 vs the current price of $79.78, implying +22.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $97.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $86.02 (P10) to $112.43 (P90), with a median of $98.86.
SCI's current P/E of 21.0x compares to the industry median of 27.0x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -22.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.6x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
9 analysts cover SCI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $93.00 (range: $93.00 — $93.00), implying +16.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SCI trades at the 4290th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SCI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5080.0% to approximately $120. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.