MODEL VERDICT
ScanSource, Inc. (SCSC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $41.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $40.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $39.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $38.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $38.09 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $64.22 | +56.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $56.61 | +37.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $60.98 | +48.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $57.88 | +40.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $49.02 | +19.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $69.31 | +68.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $91.97 | +123.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $105.09 | +155.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $62.96 | +53.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $57.88 | +40.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.46 | +29.9% | 100% | 82 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $31 | $37 | $44 | $50 | $56 |
| Conservative (7%) | $32 | $38 | $45 | $51 | $58 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $33 | $40 | $46 | $53 | $59 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $34 | $41 | $48 | $54 | $61 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.11 | 14.26 | 8.49 | 19.71 | 3.97 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.87 | 10.32 | 8.02 | 13.98 | 2.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.93 | 9.05 | 6.60 | 10.49 | 1.57 |
| P/FCF | 5.44 | 4.88 | 3.04 | 8.95 | 2.81 |
| P/FFO | 11.00 | 9.79 | 6.34 | 20.21 | 4.83 |
| P/TBV | 1.80 | 1.76 | 1.48 | 2.20 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 11.84 | 10.64 | 6.73 | 21.34 | 5.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.09 | 1.04 | 0.93 | 1.29 | 0.13 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.21 | 0.37 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates SCSC's fair value at $53.46 vs the current price of $41.15, implying +29.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $47.99 (P10) to $67.96 (P90), with a median of $57.47.
SCSC's current P/E of 13.7x compares to the industry median of 20.3x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -32.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.1x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover SCSC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $43.00 (range: $43.00 — $43.00), implying +4.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SCSC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (1.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4060.0% to approximately $24. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.