MODEL VERDICT
Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.62 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $36.11 | +95.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $43.56 | +136.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $58.57 | +217.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $36.90 | +100.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $65.01 | +252.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $32.46 | +76.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $28.79 | +56.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $62.20 | +237.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $56.85 | +208.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $69.53 | +277.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $36.94 | +100.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.04 | +95.5% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $11 | $14 | $20 | $25 | $31 |
| Conservative (8%) | $12 | $15 | $20 | $26 | $32 |
| Base Case (12.9%) | $12 | $15 | $21 | $27 | $33 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $13 | $16 | $22 | $28 | $35 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.03 | 12.34 | 6.04 | 34.98 | 9.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.72 | 11.23 | 6.00 | 31.10 | 8.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.93 | 6.37 | 4.40 | 9.57 | 2.05 |
| P/FCF | 10.86 | 11.12 | 7.79 | 13.11 | 1.94 |
| P/FFO | 6.74 | 7.53 | 3.67 | 8.69 | 1.99 |
| P/TBV | 1.80 | 1.71 | 1.38 | 2.74 | 0.45 |
| P/AFFO | 9.81 | 9.05 | 6.03 | 18.05 | 4.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.70 | 1.71 | 1.27 | 2.47 | 0.40 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.84 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SCVL's fair value at $36.04 vs the current price of $18.43, implying +95.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.73 (P10) to $44.64 (P90), with a median of $39.62.
SCVL's current P/E of 6.9x compares to the industry median of 21.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -68.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover SCVL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $22.00 (range: $22.00 — $22.00), implying +19.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SCVL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 22270.0% to approximately $59. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.