MODEL VERDICT
Senseonics Holdings, Inc. (SENS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $8.27 | CURRENT | -22.3% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $8.16 | Below threshold | -14.8% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $7.51 | Below threshold | -8.1% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $8.28 | Below threshold | -19.3% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $7.22 | Below threshold | -7.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 55 industry peers | $3.86 | -53.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 55 industry peers | $3.34 | -59.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.00 | +8.9% | 100% | 58 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/S Ratio | 31.47 | 21.56 | 8.12 | 82.46 | 25.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates SENS's fair value at $9.00 vs the current price of $8.27, implying +8.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.38 (P10) to $15.19 (P90), with a median of $8.86.
SENS's current P/E of -3.3x compares to the industry median of 29.9x (28 peers in the group). This represents a -111.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover SENS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1.10 (range: $1.10 — $1.10), implying -86.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (4), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SENS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.