MODEL VERDICT
Stifel Financial Corporation 5.20% Senior Notes due 2047 (SFB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $20.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $20.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $19.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $19.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $19.75 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $132.31 | +557.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $152.00 | +655.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $128.36 | +537.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $132.31 | +557.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $101.40 | +403.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $98.62 | +390.1% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 5× | 7× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $24 | $24 | $24 | $30 | $42 |
| Conservative (5%) | $25 | $25 | $25 | $31 | $43 |
| Base Case (7.1%) | $25 | $25 | $25 | $31 | $44 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $26 | $26 | $26 | $32 | $45 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4.66 | 3.92 | 3.27 | 7.01 | 1.46 |
| EV/EBIT | 2.66 | 2.30 | 1.34 | 5.57 | 1.53 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.44 | 1.88 | 1.25 | 5.19 | 1.44 |
| P/FCF | 6.90 | 3.25 | 1.90 | 29.31 | 9.94 |
| P/FFO | 3.95 | 3.48 | 2.78 | 6.01 | 1.24 |
| P/TBV | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.40 | 1.31 | 0.31 |
| P/AFFO | 4.77 | 4.22 | 3.05 | 8.76 | 2.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.54 | 0.44 | 0.40 | 0.82 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.36 | 0.86 | 0.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates SFB's fair value at $98.62 vs the current price of $20.12, implying +390.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $98.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $79.12 (P10) to $107.50 (P90), with a median of $93.10.
SFB's current P/E of 3.4x compares to the industry median of 22.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -84.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 4.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for SFB.
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SFB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5530.0% to approximately $31. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.