MODEL VERDICT
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $81.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $72.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $74.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $74.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $77.17 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $91.61 | +12.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $77.92 | -4.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $127.42 | +56.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $119.58 | +47.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $137.72 | +69.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $130.17 | +60.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $67.71 | -16.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $35.01 | -56.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $48.16 | -40.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $112.76 | +38.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $119.58 | +47.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $102.63 | +26.4% | 100% | 86 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $62 | $74 | $85 | $96 | $108 |
| Conservative (11%) | $65 | $77 | $88 | $100 | $112 |
| Base Case (16.9%) | $68 | $81 | $93 | $106 | $118 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $72 | $85 | $98 | $111 | $124 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.08 | 15.00 | 8.27 | 33.89 | 8.09 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.14 | 13.90 | 9.38 | 28.32 | 6.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.99 | 10.24 | 7.09 | 22.18 | 4.88 |
| P/FCF | 16.55 | 14.28 | 6.39 | 31.05 | 7.72 |
| P/FFO | 11.38 | 9.32 | 5.74 | 24.74 | 6.24 |
| P/TBV | 20.06 | 8.90 | 7.17 | 81.36 | 27.26 |
| P/AFFO | 21.19 | 13.56 | 8.14 | 44.36 | 12.89 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.76 | 3.98 | 2.70 | 9.75 | 2.38 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.74 | 0.56 | 0.37 | 1.67 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SFM's fair value at $102.63 vs the current price of $81.19, implying +26.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $102.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $79.52 (P10) to $116.59 (P90), with a median of $97.65.
SFM's current P/E of 15.3x compares to the industry median of 24.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -36.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
43 analysts cover SFM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $91.00 (range: $70.00 — $114.00), implying +12.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (20), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 5.7% is 1.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (4.3%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$68. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SFM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1650.0% to approximately $68. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.