MODEL VERDICT
Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $7.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $7.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $6.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $6.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $6.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $17.88 | +151.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $17.24 | +142.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.87 | +151.7% | 100% | 46 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 4.59 | 3.02 | 1.99 | 9.49 | 3.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.03 | 2.62 | 1.74 | 8.22 | 2.72 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.20 | 2.17 | 1.17 | 10.25 | 3.75 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates SG's fair value at $17.87 vs the current price of $7.10, implying +151.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 46/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.34 (P10) to $26.12 (P90), with a median of $18.95.
SG's current P/E of -6.2x compares to the industry median of 39.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -115.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover SG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $7.51 (range: $5.60 — $10.00), implying +5.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 46/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.